Bitcoin: metrics converge, suggesting huge rally

Metcalfes' law applies to bitcoin only in the long term not short terms says new study

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MetCalfe’s Law Applies to Bitcoin Only in the Long Term, Not Short Term, Says New Study

MetCalfe’s Law Applies to Bitcoin Only in the Long Term, Not Short Term, Says New Study submitted by bitnewsbot to bitnewsbot [link] [comments]

Quant Network: Token valuation dynamics and fundamentals

Quant Network: Token valuation dynamics and fundamentals
This post intends to illustrate the dynamics and fundamentals related to the mechanics and use of the Quant Network Utility Token (QNT), in order to provide the community with greater clarity around what holding the token actually means.
This is a follow-up on two articles David W previously wrote about Quant Network’s prospects and potential, which you can find here:
For holders not intending to use Overledger for business reasons, the primary goal of holding the QNT token is to benefit from price appreciation. Some are happy to believe that speculation will take the QNT price to much higher levels if and when large-scale adoption/implementation news comes out, whilst others may actually prefer to assess the token’s utility and analyse how it would react to various scenarios to justify a price increase based on fundamentals. The latter is precisely what I aim to look into in this article.
On that note, I have noticed that many wish to see institutional investors getting involved in the crypto space for their purchase power, but the one thing they would bring and that is most needed in my opinion is fundamental analysis and valuation expectations based on facts. Indeed, equity investors can probably access 20 or 30 reports that are 15 pages long and updated on a quarterly basis about any blue chip stock they are invested in, but how many of such (professional) analyst reports can you consult for your favorite crypto coins? Let me have a guess: none. This is unfortunate, and it is a further reason to look into the situation in more details.
To be clear, this article is not about providing figures on the expected valuation of the token, but rather about providing the community with a deeper analysis to better understand its meaning and valuation context. This includes going through the (vast) differences between a Utility Token and a Company Share since I understand it is still blurry in some people’s mind. I will incorporate my thoughts and perspective on these matters, which should not be regarded as a single source of truth but rather as an attempt to “dig deeper”.
In order to share these thoughts with you in the most pertinent manner, I have actually entirely modelled the Quant Treasury function and analysed how the QNT token would react to various scenarios based on a number of different factors. That does not mean there is any universal truth to be told, but it did help in clarifying how things work (with my understanding of the current ruleset at least, which may also evolve over time). This is an important safety net: if the intensity of speculation in crypto markets was to go lower from here, what would happen to the token price? How would Quant Treasury help support it? If the market can feel comfortable with such situation and the underlying demand for the token, then it can feel comfortable to take it higher based on future growth expectations — and that’s how it should be.
Finally, to help shed light on different areas, I must confess that I will have to go through some technicalities on how this all works and what a Utility Token actually is. That is the price to pay to gain that further, necessary knowledge and be in a position to assess the situation more thoroughly — but I will make it as readable as I possibly can, so… if are you ready, let’s start!

A Utility Token vs. a Company Share: what is the difference?

It is probably fair to say that many people involved in the crypto space are unfamiliar with certain key financial terms or concepts, simply because finance is not necessarily everyone’s background (and that is absolutely fine!). In addition, Digital Assets bring some very novel concepts, which means that everyone has to adapt in any case.
Therefore, I suggest we start with a comparison of the characteristics underpinning the QNT Utility Token and a Quant Network Company Share (as you may know, the Company Shares are currently privately held by the Quant Network founders). I believe it is important to look at this comparison for two reasons:
  1. Most people are familiar with regular Company Shares because they have been traded for decades, and it is often asked how Utility Tokens compare.
  2. Quant Network have announced a plan to raise capital to grow their business further (in the September 2019 Forbes article which you can find here). Therefore, regardless of whether the Share Offering is made public or private, I presume the community will want to better understand how things compare and the different dynamics behind each instrument.
So where does the QNT Utility Token sit in Quant Network company and how does it compare to a Quant Network Company Share? This is how it looks:
https://preview.redd.it/zgidz8ed74y31.png?width=1698&format=png&auto=webp&s=54acd2def0713b67ac7c41dae6c9ab225e5639fa
What is on the right hand side of a balance sheet is the money a company has, and what is on the left hand side is how it uses it. Broadly speaking, the money the company has may come from the owners (Equity) or from the creditors (Debt). If I were to apply these concepts to an individual (you!), “Equity” is your net worth, “Debt” is your mortgage and other debt, and “Assets” is your house, car, savings, investments, crypto, etc.
As you can see, a Company Share and a Utility Token are found in different parts of the balance sheet — and that, in itself, is a major difference! They indeed serve two very different purposes:
  • Company Shares: they represent a share of a company’s ownership, meaning that you actually own [X]% of the company ([X]% = Number of shares you possess / Total number of shares) and hence [X]% of the company’s assets on the left hand side of the balance sheet.
  • Utility Tokens: they are keys to access a given platform (in our case, Quant Network’s Operating System: Overledger) and they can serve multiple purposes as defined by their Utility Document (in QNT’s case, the latest V0.3 version can be found here).
As a consequence, as a Company Shareholder, you are entitled to receive part or all of the profits generated by the company (as the case may arise) and you can also take part in the management decisions (indeed, with 0.00000001% of Apple shares, you have the corresponding right to vote to kick the CEO out if you want to!).
On the other hand, as a Utility Token holder, you have no such rights related to the company’s profits or management, BUT any usage of the platform has to go through the token you hold — and that has novel, interesting facets.

A Utility Token vs. a Company Share: what happens in practice?

Before we dig further, let’s now remind ourselves of the economic utilities of the QNT token (i.e. in addition to signing and encrypting transactions):
  1. Licences: a licence is mandatory for anyone who wishes to develop on the Overledger platform. Enterprises and Developers pay Quant Network in fiat money and Quant Treasury subsequently sets aside QNT tokens for the same amount (a diagram on how market purchases are performed can be found on the Overledger Treasury page here). The tokens are locked for 12 months, and the current understanding is that the amount of tokens locked is readjusted at each renewal date to the prevailing market price of QNT at the time (this information is not part of the Utility Token document as of now, but it was given in a previous Telegram AMA so I will assume it is correct pending further developments).
  2. Usage: this relates to the amount of Overledger read and write activity performed by clients on an ongoing basis, and also to the transfer of Digital Assets from one chain to another, and it follows a similar principle: fiat money is received by Quant Network, and subsequently converted in QNT tokens (these tokens are not locked, however).
  3. Gateways: information about Gateways has been released through the Overledger Network initiative (see dedicated website here), and we now know that the annual cost for running a Gateway will be 500 QNT whilst Gateway holders will receive a percentage of transaction fees going through their setup.
  4. Minimum holding amounts: the team has stated that there will be a minimum QNT holding amount put in place for every participant of the Overledger ecosystem, although the details have not been released yet.
That being said, it now becomes interesting to illustrate with indicative figures what actually happens as Licences, Usage and Gateways are paid for and Quant Network company operates. The following diagram may help in this respect:
Arbitrary figures from myself (i.e. no currency, no unit), based on an indicative 20% Net Income Ratio and a 40% Dividend yield
We have now two different perspectives:
  • On the right hand side, you see the simplified Profit & Loss account (“P&L”) which incorporates Total Revenues, from which costs and taxes are deducted, to give a Net Income for the company. A share of this Net Income may be distributed to Shareholders in the form of a Dividend, whilst the remainder is accounted as retained profits and goes back to the balance sheet as Equity to fund further growth for instance. Importantly, the Dividend (if any) is usually a portion of the Net Income so, using an indicative 40% Dividend yield policy, shareholders receive here for a given year 80 out of total company revenues of 1,000.
  • On the left hand side, you see the QNT requirements arising from the Overledger-related business activity which equal 700 here. Note that this is only a portion of the Total Revenues (1,000) you can see on the right hand side, as the team generates income from other sources as well (e.g. consultancy fees) — but I assume Overledger will represent the bulk of it since it is Quant Network’s flagship product and focus. In this case, the equivalent fiat amount of QNT tokens represents 700 (i.e. 100% of Overledger-related revenues) out of the company’s Total Revenues of 1,000. It is to be noted that excess reserves of QNT may be sold and generate additional revenues for the company, which would be outside of the Overledger Revenues mentioned above (i.e. they would fall in the “Other Revenues” category).
A way to summarise the situation from a very high level is: as a Company Shareholder you take a view on the company’s total profits whereas as a Utility Token holder you take a view on the company’s revenues (albeit Overledger-related).
It is however too early to reach any conclusion, so we now need to dig one level deeper again.

More considerations around Company Shares

As we discussed, with a Company Share, you possess a fraction of the company’s ownership and hence you have access to profits (and losses!). So how do typical Net Income results look in the technology industry? What sort of Dividend is usually paid? What sort of market valuations are subsequently achieved?
Let’s find out:
https://preview.redd.it/eua9sqlt74y31.png?width=2904&format=png&auto=webp&s=3500669942abf62a0ea1c983ab3cea40552c40d1
As you can see, the typical Net Income Ratio varies between around 10% and 20% in the technology/software industry (using the above illustrated peer group). The ratio illustrates the proportion of Net Income extracted from Revenues.
In addition, money is returned to Company Shareholders in the form of a Dividend (i.e. a portion of the Net Income) and in the form of Share repurchases (whereby the company uses its excess cash position to buy back shares from Shareholders and hence diminish the number of Shares available). A company may however prefer to not redistribute any of the profits, and retain them instead to fund further business growth — Alphabet (Google) is a good example in this respect.
Interestingly, as you can see on the far right of the table, the market capitalisations of these companies reflect high multiples of their Net Income as investors expect the companies to prosper in the future and generate larger profits. If you wished to explore these ideas further, I recommend also looking into the Return on Equity ratio which takes into account the amount of resources (i.e. Capital/Equity) put to work to generate the companies’ profits.
It is also to be noted that the number of Company Shares outstanding may vary over time. Indeed, aside from Share repurchases that diminish the number of Shares available to the market, additional Shares may be issued to raise additional funds from the market hence diluting the ownership of existing Shareholders.
Finally, (regular) Company Shares are structured in the same way across companies and industries, which brings a key benefit of having them easily comparable/benchmarkable against one another for investors. That is not the case for Utility Tokens, but they come with the benefit of having a lot more flexible use cases.

More considerations around the QNT token

As discussed, the Utility Token model is quite novel and each token has unique functions designed for the system it is associated with. That does not make value assessment easy, since all Utility Tokens are different, and this is a further reason to have a detailed look into the QNT case.
https://preview.redd.it/b0xe0ogw74y31.png?width=1512&format=png&auto=webp&s=cece522cd7919125e199b012af41850df6d9e9fd
As a start, all assets that are used in a speculative way embed two components into their price:
A) one that represents what the asset is worth today, and
B) one that represents what it may be worth in the future.
Depending on whether the future looks bright or not, a price premium or a price discount may be attached to the asset price.
This is similar to what we just saw with Company Shares valuation multiples, and it is valid across markets. For instance, Microsoft generates around USD 21bn in annual Net Income these days, but the cost of acquiring it entirely is USD 1,094bn (!). This speculative effect is particularly visible in the crypto sector since valuation levels are usually high whilst usage/adoption levels are usually low for now.
So what about QNT? As mentioned, the QNT Utility model has novel, interesting facets. Since QNT is required to access and use the Overledger system, it is important to appreciate that Quant Network company has three means of action regarding the QNT token:
  1. MANAGING their QNT reserves on an ongoing basis (i.e. buying or selling tokens is not always automatic, they can allocate tokens from their own reserves depending on their liquidity position at any given time),
  2. BUYING/RECEIVING QNT from the market/clients on the back of business activity, and
  3. SELLING QNT when they deem their reserves sufficient and/or wish to sell tokens to cover for operational costs.
Broadly speaking, the above actions will vary depending on business performance, the QNT token price and the Quant Network company’s liquidity position.
We also have to appreciate how the QNT distribution will always look like, it can be broken down as follows:
https://preview.redd.it/f20h7hvz74y31.png?width=1106&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2f5b63272f5ed6e3f977ce08d7bae043851edd1
A) QNT tokens held by the QNT Community
B) QNT tokens held by Quant Network that are locked (i.e. those related to Licences)
C) QNT tokens held by Quant Network that are unlocked (i.e. those related to other usage, such as consumption fees and Gateways)
D) the minimum QNT amount held by all users of the platform (more information on this front soon)
So now that the situation is set, how would we assess Quant Network’s business activity effect on the QNT token?
STEP 1: We would need to define the range of minimum/maximum amounts of QNT which Quant Network would want to keep as liquid reserves (i.e. unlocked) on an ongoing basis. This affects key variables such as the proportion of market purchases vs. the use of their own reserves, and the amount of QNT sold back to the market. Also, interestingly, if Quant Network never wanted to keep less than, for instance, 1 million QNT tokens as liquid reserves, these 1 million tokens would have a similar effect on the market as the locked tokens because they would never be sold.
STEP 2: We would need to define the amount of revenues that are related to QNT. As we know, Overledger Licences, Usage and Gateways generate revenues converted into QNT (or in QNT directly). So the correlation is strong between revenues and QNT needs. Interestingly, the cost of a licence is probably relatively low today in order to facilitate adoption and testing, but it will surely increase over time. The same goes for usage fees, especially as we move from testing/pilot phases to mass implementation. The number of clients will also increase. The Community version of Overledger is also set to officially launch next year. More information on revenue potential can be found later in this article.
STEP 3: We would need to define an evolution of the QNT token price over time and see how things develop with regards to Quant Network’s net purchase/sale of tokens every month (i.e. tokens required - tokens sold = net purchased/sold tokens).
Once assumptions are made, what do we observe?
In an undistorted environment, there is a positive correlation between Quant Network’s QNT-related revenues and the market capitalisation they occupy (i.e. the Quant Network share of the token distribution multiplied by the QNT price). However, this correlation can get heavily twisted as the speculative market prices a premium to the QNT price (i.e. anticipating higher revenues). As we will see, a persistent discount is not really possible as Quant Treasury would mechanically have to step in with large market purchases, which would provide strong support to the QNT price.
In addition, volatility is to be added to the equation since QNT volatility is likely to be (much) higher than that of revenues which can create important year-on-year disparities. For instance, Quant Treasury may lock a lot of tokens at a low price one year, and be well in excess of required tokens the next year if the QNT token price has significantly increased (and vice versa). This is not an issue per se, but this would impact the amount of tokens bought/sold on an ongoing basis by Quant Treasury as reserves inflate/deflate.
If we put aside the distortions created by speculation on the QNT price, and the subsequent impact on the excess/deficiency of Quant Network token reserves (whose level is also pro-actively managed by the company, as previously discussed), the economic system works as follows:
High QNT price vs. Revenue levels: The value of reserves is inflated, fewer tokens need to be bought for the level of revenues generated, Quant Treasury provides low support to the QNT price, its share of the token distribution diminishes.
Low QNT price vs. Revenue levels: Reserves run out, a higher number of tokens needs to be bought for the level of revenues generated, Quant Treasury provides higher support to the QNT price, its share of the token distribution increases.
Summary table:
https://preview.redd.it/q7wgzpv384y31.png?width=2312&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8c0480cb34caf2e59615ec21ea220d81d79b153
The key here is that, whatever speculation on future revenue levels does to the token in the first place, if the QNT price was falling and reaching a level that does not reflect the prevailing revenue levels of Overledger at a given time, then Quant Treasury would require a larger amount of tokens to cover the business needs which would mean the depletion of their reserves, larger purchases from the market and strong support for the QNT price from here. This is the safety net we want to see, coming from usage! Indeed, in other words, if the QNT price went very high very quickly, Quant Treasury may not be seen buying much tokens since their reserves would be inflated BUT that fall back mechanics purely based on usage would be there to safeguard QNT holders from the QNT price falling below a certain level.
I would assume this makes sense for most, and you might now wonder why have I highlighted the bottom part about the token distribution in red? That is because there is an ongoing battle between the QNT community and Quant Treasury — and this is very interesting.
The ecosystem will show how big a share is the community willing to let Quant Network represent. The community actually sets the price for the purchases, and the token distribution fluctuates depending on the metrics we discussed. An equilibrium will be formed based on the confidence the market has in Quant Network’s future revenue generation. Moreover, the QNT community could perceive the token as a Store of Value and be happy to hold 80/90% of all tokens for instance, or it could perceive QNT as more dynamic or risky and be happy to only represent 60/70% of the distribution. Needless to say that, considering my previous articles on the potential of Overledger, I think we will tend more towards the former scenario. Indeed, if you wished to store wealth with a technology-agnostic, future proof, globally adopted, revenue-providing (through Gateways) Network of Networks on which most of the digitalised value is flowing through — wouldn’t you see QNT as an appealing value proposition?
In a nutshell, it all comes down to the Overledger revenue levels and the QNT holders’ resistence to buy pressure from Quant Treasury. Therefore, if you are confident in the Overledger revenue generation and wish to see the QNT token price go up, more than ever, do not sell your tokens!
What about the locked tokens? There will always be a certain amount of tokens that are entirely taken out of circulation, but Quant Network company will always keep additional unlocked tokens on top of that (those they receive and manage as buffer) and that means that locked tokens will always be a subset of what Quant Network possesses. I do not know whether fees will primarily be concentrated on the licencing side vs. the usage side, but if that were to be the case then it would be even better as a higher amount of tokens would be taken out of circulation for good.
Finally, as long as the company operates, the revenues will always represent a certain amount of money whereas this is not the case for profits which may not appear before years (e.g. during the first years, during an economic/business downturn, etc.). As an illustration, a company like Uber has seen vast increases in revenues since it launched but never made any profit! Therefore, the demand for the QNT token benefits from good resilience from that perspective.
Quant Network vs. QNT community — What proportion of the QNT distribution will each represent?

How much revenues can Overledger generate?

I suggest we start with the basis of what the Quant Network business is about: connecting networks together, building new-generation hyper-decentralised apps on top (called “mApps”), and creating network effects.
Network effects are best defined by Metcalfe’s law which states: “the effect of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system” (Source: Wikipedia). This is illustrated by the picture below, which demonstrates the increasing number of possible connections for each new user added to the network. This was also recently discussed in a YouTube podcast by QNT community members “Luke” and “Ghost of St. Miklos” which you can watch here.
Source: applicoinc.com
This means that, as Overledger continues to connect more and more DLTs of all types between themselves and also with legacy systems, the number of users (humans or machines) connected to this Network of Networks will grow substantially — and the number of possible connections between participants will in turn grow exponentially. This will increase the value of the network, and hence the level of fees associated with getting access to it. This forms the basis of expected, future revenue generation and especially in a context where Overledger remains unique as of today and embraced by many of the largest institutions in the world (see the detailed summary on the matter from community member “Seq” here).
On top of this network, multi-chain hyper-decentralised applications (‘mApps’) can be built — which are an upgrade to existing dApps that use only one chain at a time and hence only benefit from the user base and functionalities of the given chain. Overledger mApps can leverage on the users and abilities of all connected chains at the same time, horizontal scaling, the ability to write/move code in any language across chains as required, write smart contracts on blockchains that do not support them (e.g. Bitcoin), and provide easier connection to other systems. dApps have barely had any success so far, as discussed in my first article, but mApps could provide the market with the necessary tools to build applications that can complement or rival what can be found on the Apple or Google Play store.
Also, the flexibility of Overledger enables Quant Network to target a large number of industries and to connect them all together. A sample of use cases can be found in the following illustration:
https://preview.redd.it/th8edz5b84y31.png?width=2664&format=png&auto=webp&s=105dd4546f8f9ab2c66d1a5a8e9f669cef0e0614
It is to be noted that one of the use cases, namely the tokenisation of the entire world’s assets, represents a market worth hundreds of trillions of USD and that is not even including the huge amount of illiquid assets not currently traded on traditional Capital Markets which could benefit from the tokenisation process. More information on the topic can be found in my previous article fully focused on the potential of Overledger to capture value from the structural shift in the world’s assets and machine-related data/value transfers.
Finally, we can look at what well established companies with a similar technology profile have been able to achieve. Overledger is an Operating System for DLTs and legacy systems on top of which applications can be built. The comparison to Microsoft Windows and the suite of Microsoft Software running on top (e.g. Microsoft Office) is an obvious one from that perspective to gauge the longer term potential.
As you can see below, Microsoft’s flagship softwares such as Windows and Office each generate tens of billions of USD of revenues every year:
Source: Geekwire
We can also look at Oracle, the second largest Enterprise software company in the world:
Source: Statista
We can finally look at what the Apple store and the Google Play store generate, since the Quant Network “mApp store” for the community side of Overledger will look to replicate a similar business model with hyper-decentralised applications:
Source: Worldwide total revenue by app store, 2018 ($bn)
The above means total revenues of around USD 70bn in 2018 for the Apple store and Google Play store combined, and the market is getting bigger year-on-year! Also, again, these (indicative!) reference points for Overledger come in the context of the Community version of the system only, since the Enterprise version represents a separate set of verticals more comparable to the likes of Microsoft and Oracle which we just looked at.

Conclusion

I hope this article helped shed further light on the QNT token and how the various market and business parameters will influence its behavior over time, as the Quant Network business is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years.
In the recent Forbes interview, Quant Network’s CEO (Gilbert Verdian) stated : “Our potential to grow is uncapped as we change and transform industries by creating a secure layer between them at speed. Our vision is to build a mass version of what I call an internet of trust, where value can be securely transferred between global partners not relying on defunct internet security but rather that of blockchain.”.
This is highly encouraging with regards to business prospects and also in comparison to what other companies have been able to achieve since the Web as we know it today emerged (e.g. Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc.). The Internet is now entering a new phase, with DLT technology at its core, and Overledger is set to be at the forefront of this new paradigm which will surely offer a vast array of new opportunities across sectors.
I believe it is an exciting time for all of us to be part of the journey, as long as any financial commitment is made with a good sense of responsibility and understanding of what success comes down to. “Crypto” is still immature in many respects, and the emergence of a dedicated regulatory framework combined with the expected gradual, selective entrance of institutional money managers will hopefully help shed further light and protect retail token holders from the misunderstandings, misinformation and misconduct which too many have suffered from in the last years.
Thanks for your time and interest.
Appendix:
First article: “The reasons why Quant Network (QNT) will rise to the Top of the crypto sphere in the coming months”
Second article: “The potential of Quant Network’s technology to capture value from the structural shift in the World’s assets and machine-related data/value transfers”
October 2019 City AM interview of Gilbert Verdian (CEO): Click here
October 2019 Blockchain Brad interview of Gilbert Verdian (CEO): Click here
July 2019 Blockchain Brad interview of Gilbert Verdian (CEO): Click here
February 2019 Blockchain Brad interview of Gilbert Verdian (CEO): Click here
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About the original author of the article:
My name is David and I spent years in the Investment Banking industry in London. I hold QNT tokens and the above views are based on my own thoughts and research only. I am not affiliated with the Quant Network team in any way. This is not investment advice, please do your own research and understand what you are buying before doing so. It is also my belief that more than 90% of all other crypto projects will fail because what matters is what is getting adopted; please do not put more money at risk than you can afford to lose.
submitted by mr_sonic to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.

What's happening now and how bad will it get?

First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.

How to construct your portfolio going forward

Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
  • Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
  • Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
  • What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
  • What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
  • Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
  • What current product exists?
  • How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
  • What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
  • Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
  • Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
  • If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
  • Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
  • Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
  • Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, WABI...etc
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment.
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.

Summing it up

I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Want to start fresh after the crypto crash? Here is a comprehensive guide on how to invest and prosper over the long term.

Well its happened, the crypto market just experienced the worst crash since 2014, the bubble has burst. The idiocy of newbies FOMO-ing into anything with low nominal value lead to endless twitter timelines like this, and now nobody has any idea where the market settles. What do you do now?
In the following weeks it will be a good time to rethink your investment approach and how you arrive at your decisions. Just buying whatever is shilled on Twitter or Reddit and jumping from one crypto to another isn't going to work like it did these last two months.
The good news is that we're finally back closer and closer to our long term moving average which is much more healthy for entrants, the bad news is that the fear might continue compounding if outstanding issues are not dealt with. Tether is the big concern for me personally for reasons I've stated many times, but some relief in the short term may come if the SEC and CFTC meeting on February 6th goes well. Nobody really knows where the bottom is but I think we're now past the "irrational exhuberance" stage and we're entering a period of more serious inspection where cryptos will actually have to prove themselves as useful. I suspect hype artists like CryptoNick and John McAfee will fall out of favor.
But perhaps most importantly use this as a learning experience, don't try to point fingers now. The type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was rewarded in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a shillcoin, following hype..etc) could only ever lead to what we are experiencing now. Just like so many people jumped on the crypto bandwagon during the bull run, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon is to be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble. Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case will accept that they themselves with their own investing behavior were the real reason for the gross overvaluation of most cryptocurrencies, and the inevitable crash.
So if you're looking for a fresh start after the massacre (or just want to get in now), here is a guide:

Part A: Making a Investment Strategy

This is your money, put some effort into investing it with an actual strategy. Some simple yet essential advice that should apply to everyone, regardless of individual strategy:
  1. Slow down and research each crypto that you're buying for at least a week.
  2. Don't buy something just because it has risen.
  3. Don't exit a position just because it has declined.
  4. Invest only as much as you can afford to lose.
  5. Prepare enter and exit strategies in advance.
First take some time to think about your ROI target, set your hold periods for each position and how much you are actually ready to risk losing.
ROI targets
A lot of young investors who are in crypto have unrealistic expectations about returns and risk. A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 5-10% ROI in a month to be unexciting.
But its important to temper your hype and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year and how unlikely it is that we see 10x returns in the next year. What we saw recently was Greater Fool Theory in action. Those unexciting returns of 5-10% a month are much more of the norm, and much more healthy for an alternative investment class.
You can think about setting a target in terms of the market ROI over a relevant holding period and then add or decrease based on your own risk profile.
Example: Calculating a 2 year ROI target
Lets say you want to hold for 2 years now, how could you set a realistic target to strive for? You could look at a historical 2 year return as a base, preferably during a period similar to what we're facing now. Now that we had a major correction, I think we can look at the two year period starting in 2015 after we had the 2014 crash. To calculate a 2 year CAGR starting in 2015:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2015: $5.5 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $18 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): [(18/5.5)1/2]-1 = 81%
This annual return rate of 81% comes out to about 4.9% compounded monthly. This may not sound exciting to the lambo moon crowd, but it will keep you grounded in reality. You can aim for a higher return (say 2x of that 81% rate) if you choose to take on more risky propositions. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio based on your target.
Risk Management
Everything you buy in crypto is risky, but it still helps to think of these 3 risk categories:
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation for one, but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology.
The general starting point I would recommend is:
Some more core principles on risk management to consider:
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm), but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, it is essentially the risk that is carried by the entire market over things like regulations. What you can minimize though the Ri, the specific risks with your crypto. That will depend on the team composition, geographic risks (for example Chinese coins like NEO carry regulatory risks specific to China), competition within the space and likelihood of adoption and other factors, which I'll describe in Part 2: Crypto Picking Methodology.
Portfolio Allocation
Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
Think about your "Circle of Competence", your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Your ability to properly judge risk and potential is going to largely correlated to your understanding of the subject matter. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption? If you don't understand anything about the tech when you read the Cardano paper, are you really able to determine how likely it is to be adopted?
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you have over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.

Part B: Crypto Picking Methodology (Due Dilligence)

Do you struggle on how to fundamentally analyze cryptocurrencies? Here is a 3-step methodology to follow to perform your due dilligence:

Step 1: Filtering and Research

There is so much out there that you can get overwhelmed. The best way to start is to think back to your own portfolio allocation strategy and what you would like to get more off. For example in my view enterprise-focused blockchain solutions will be important in the next few years, and so I look to create a list of various cryptos that are in that segment.
Upfolio has brief descriptions of the top 100 cryptos and is filterable by categories, for example you can click the "Enterprise" category and you have a neat list of VEN, FCT, WTC...etc.
Once you have a list of potential candidates, its time to read about them:
  • Critically evaluate the website. If it's a cocktail of nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and poorly made, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on.
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts selling? Try to figure out who the whales are (not always easy!) and what the foundation/founder account is based on the initial allocation.
  • Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
  • Search out the subreddit and look at a few Medium or Steem blogs about the coin. How "shilly" is the community, and how much engagement is there between developer and the community?
  • I would also go through the BitcoinTalk thread and Twitter mentions, judge both the length and quality of the discussion.
You can actually filter out a lot of scams and bad investments by simply keeping your eye out on the following red flags:
  • allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • guaranteed promises of returns (Bitcooonnneeeect!)
  • vague whitepapers filled with buzzwords
  • vague timelines and no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on

Step 2: Passing a potential pick through a checklist

Once you feel fairly confident that a pick is worth analyzing further, run them through a standardized checklist of questions. This is one I use, you can add other questions yourself:
Crypto Analysis Checklist
What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
How big is the market they're targeting?
Who is their competition and what does it do better?
What is the roadmap they created and how well have they kept to it?
What current product exists?
How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
Is there any new tech, and is it informational or governance based?
Can it be easily copied?
What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
The last question is the most important.
This is where the riskiness of your crypto is evaluated, the Ri I talked about above. Here you should be able to accurate place the crypto into one of the three risk categories. I also like to run through this checklist of blockchain benefits and consider which specific properties of the blockchain are being used by the specific crypto to provide some increased utility over the current transactional method:
Benefits of Cryptocurrency
Decentralization - no need for a third party to agree or validate transactions.
Transparency and trust - As blockchain are shared, everyone can see what transactions occur. Useful for something like an online casino.
Immutability - It is extremely difficult to change a transaction once its been put onto a blockchain
Distributed availability - The system is spread on thousands of nodes on a P2P network, so its difficult to take the system down.
Security - cryptographically secured transactions provide integrity
Simplification and consolidation - a blockchain can serve as a shared ledger in industries where multiple entities previously kept their own data sources
Quicker Settlement - In the financial industry when we're dealing with post-trade settlement, a blockchain can drastically increase the speed of verification
Cost - in some cases avoiding a third party verification would drastically reduce costs.

Step 3: Create a valuation model

You don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do:
Probablistic Scenario Valuation
This is all about thinking of scenarios and probability, a helpful exercise in itself. For example: Bill Miller, a prominent value investor, wrote a probabilistic valuation case for Bitcoin in 2015. He looked at two possible scenarios for probabalistic valuation:
  1. becoming a store-of-value equal to gold (a $6.4 trillion value), with a .25% probability of occurring
  2. replacing payment processors like VISA, MasterCard, etc. (a $350 million dollar value) with a 2.5% probability
Combining those scenarios would give you the total expected market cap: (0.25% x 6.4 trillion) + (2.5% x 350 million). Divide this by the outstanding supply and you have your valuation.
Metcalfe's Law
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic. We can alter this to crypto by thinking about it in terms of both users and transactions:
For example, compare the Coinbase pairs:
Metric Bitoin Ethereum Litecoin
Market Cap $152 Billion $93 Billion $7.3 Billion
Daily Transactions (last 24hrs) 249,851 1,051,427 70,397
Active Addresses (Peak 1Yr) 1,132,000 1,035,000 514,000
Metcalfe Ratio (Transactions Based) 2.43 0.08 1.47
Metcalfe Ratio (Address Based) 0.12 0.09 0.03
Generally the higher the ratio, the higher the valuation given for each address/transaction.
Market Cap to Industry comparisons
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
More complex valuation models
If you would like to get into more fleshed out models with Excel, I highly recommend Chris Burniske's blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done by Nodar Janashia using Chris' model .
You should create multiple scenarios with multiple assumptions, both positive and negative. Have a base scenario and then moderately optimistic/pessimistic and highly optimistic/pessimistic scenario.
Personally I like to see at least a 50% upward potential before investing from my moderately pessimistic scenario, but you can set your own safety margin.
The real beneficial thing about modelling isn't even the price or valuation comparisons it spits out, but that it forces you to think about why the coin has value and what your own assumption about the future are. For example the discount rate you apply to the net present utility formula drastically affects the valuation, and it reflects your own assumptions of how risky the crypto is. What exactly would be a reasonable discount rate? What about the digital economy you are assuming for the coin, what levers affects its size and adoption and how likely are your assumptions to come true? You'll be a drastically more intelligent investor if you think about the fundamental variables that give your coin the market cap you think it should hold.

Summing it up

The time for lambo psychosis is over. But that's no reason to feel down, this is a new day and what many were waiting for. I've put together in one place here how to construct a portfolio allocation (taking into consideration risk and return targets), and how to go through a systematic crypto picking method. I'm won't tell you what to buy, you should always decide that for yourself and DYOR. But as long as you follow a rational and thorough methodology (feel free to modify anything I said above to suit your own needs) you will feel pretty good about your investments, even in times like these.
Edit: Also get a crypto prediction ferret. You won't regret it.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Where is this hype around cryptocurrencies?

Many people think that such a hype around bitcoin in 2017 rose due to the fact that it rose in price to$ 20,000 and because everyone wanted to get rich quickly. Now I will try to prove that this is only a consequence, not the cause of its growth. I will write as briefly as possible and in simple language, but to understand in detail you will need to additionally Google.
First, you need to explain why bitcoin is constantly growing in price, though with sharp collapses. As we know from the law of supply and demand, the price is set at the point of equilibrium between supply and demand. It is also known that there can be only 21 million bitcoins and "new" bitcoins appear on a pre-programmed code that can not be changed(details in Google). In other words, the supply is initially limited, but the demand is constantly growing, because more and more people are getting acquainted with the idea of bitcoin and blockchain. And then you need to get acquainted with the law of Metcalf. According to this law, an increase in the number of users of a communication network leads to an exponential increase in its value.
So, at the beginning of 2017, BTC cost $ 900. In April, there was news that in Japan, bitcoin is recognized as a means of payment(!).
In parallel, alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) and tokens on the Ethereum platform began to develop rapidly - this is the 2nd largest cryptocurrency by capitalization at that time. At the beginning of the year, the total capitalization of all cryptocurrencies was about $ 20 billion. Of these, almost 90% came from bitcoin. But in the spring of 2017, everything changed. The dominance of bitcoin rapidly began to fall and by the summer the capitalization of bitcoin was already 40% of the rest of the market. The fact is that the so-called ICO began to be held on Ethereum - this is the initial placement of tokens, that is, the appearance of many new blockchain startups. A new, previously non-existent, with its own characteristics economy was born. It sounds pretty loud, but I didn't formulate it. On the official YouTube channel of VEB there is a corresponding video "BLOCKCHAIN-the BIRTH of a NEW ECONOMY, SPIEF 2017". I think for adequate people it will be a powerful argument that Ethereum should not be compared with pyramids, such as cashberry or mmm. I personally spoke with Buterin(the Creator of Ethereum) at one of the lectures at the HSE. I can say that he is, to put it mildly, a peculiar person) he clearly does not think about how to get rich quickly, he is completely absorbed in his idea. Vitalik is developing a system that can be used in many areas of humanity and co-ordinally change them, removing intermediaries between people, thanks to the features of the blockchain.
So ICO is an analogue of IPO in the traditional market. Since the cryptocurrency market IS still unregulated, it is natural that many scammers appeared on it. And now it is already obvious that 90-95% of all startups that were launched on Ethereum are either fraudulent or will never find a practical application. In order to get the newly minted tokens, it was necessary to buy ether, which led to a sharp increase in the price of it. So the bubble was formed, the deflation of which we are now witnessing. Ether rose from $ 10 to $ 1500, and now fell to $ 85.
It is worth noting that, firstly, ICO is not the only possible use of Ethereum, and secondly, promising tokens were released on Ethereum, which will definitely have a practical application. I will tell you more about these startups in other posts.
Back to bitcoin. In the summer of 2017, the first major update in the bitcoin network occurred. The so-called SegWit, which increased the bandwidth of the blockchain and paved the way for the Lightening Network(I'll omit the technical details, everything is in Google). And there were rumors about the appearance of the first futures on the Chicago stock exchange CBOE and CME. And here the bubble has already inflated on bitcoin. In my opinion, people overestimated the significance of this event and bitcoin literally soared in 3 months in the price of 3-4 times. Which caused it to collapse as quickly as it had grown. In the last post, I just told and gave examples of the formation of bubbles in new markets. I also wrote about the fact that markets are cyclical. At the moment, all those who wanted to get rich quickly, not realizing what bitcoin is, left the market in panic and disappointment, only losing their money.
But apart from the price, or rather short-term demand, nothing has changed. The same Lighning Network is still growing and developing, according to the same law of Metcalf. Ethereum is still a crude system, it has a lot of updates ahead that will significantly increase the throughput of the blockchain.
I want to say that it is not necessary to look at prices in the first place. Course changes are just the psychology of crowd behavior and various manipulations in this new and yet unregulated market.
In the following posts, I will talk about various promising and interesting projects using blockchain, so that everyone can imagine how this technology can change the world. And I will also tell you why bitcoin can start its new rapid growth next year. All the most interesting things are ahead. The growth of the capitalization of cryptocurrencies in 2017 from $ 20bn to $ 800bn is only the beginning of the development of this market. In a few years, it may well be more than a trillion dollars.
More https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmYpavSD9aALIt_lhde2Ewg?view_as=subscriber
submitted by chapikla to u/chapikla [link] [comments]

Google trends and price support at the 'Boring low'

I posted this yesterday on the Daily Discussion forum at bitcoinmarkets:
I analysed gtrends data for 'Bitcoin' search as provided at
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/google_trends-btc.html#log
It plots against time the multiple of searches from 1/1/2012.
I have looked at the boring low (flatline) periods in mid 2012, mid 2013, mid 2015, late 2016 and the reason for choosing these periods are that searches there are as less polluted from speculators as possible.
A very uncanny relationship between price at those periods and search index is that price directly proportional to square of search index.
Now we have the advantage that the Oct 2018 was a very low volatility period so hopefully stripped out of speculators so if I take the Google search index in that period and extrapolate from the earlier observed trend, we could conclude that the price that can be supported is at least 3k.
Now what could be the rationale to expect price to be proportional to square of search interest? I think Metcalfe law on value of networks. If the number of users double, not only do you have more users but each user sees more value in the network because of the proportionally higher number of fellow users.
Data to support above:
2012: GT=1 Price=5
mid 2013: GT=4.34 Price=90
mid 2015 GT=6.5 Price=225
Early 2016 GT=8 Price=405
Late 2016 GT=9 Price=600
Oct 2018 GT=26 Price = ???
Note that it won't work to use such data for volatile, very bearish or very bullish periods because then searches are polluted by people just searching because of BTC being in the news for volatility.
Tldr: I see 3k having high probability of being a bottom due to being supported by the search interest based analysis above. This is a reason additional to 3k being the support level by being the low of mid Sep 2017 and being the same % decline from ATH as previous bear market.
So fingers crossed on 3k holding.
submitted by aaj094 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

For all the newbies here: Relax, you are an early adopter, never 'panic-sell', corrections like this one are a good entry point of for 'Dollar Cost Averaging'. And no, Korea didn't just "ban" Bitcoin.

It is always a good time to buy (the real Bitcoin, not Bcash), we are NOT in a "bubble" (fiat is the real bubble), the answer is: Buy now, always Hodl in FUD times (Bitcoin has "died" many times, but Moneybadger don't care, buy the dips and never panic-sell, stuff like: "China/Korea ban Bitcoin...again!" will keep happening again and again.
Stick to the real Bitcoin through all the 'forks' and 'splits' that accomplish nothing but new mediocre, unsafe and centralized altcoins, strengthen/immunize Bitcoin and give you free altcoins to buy more Bitcoin.
All Central Powers look silly trying to control or ban it. Learn from history and listen to this absolute Boss. There will never be enough Bitcoin for every existing millionaire to own just ONE SINGLE BITCOIN, Total number of millionaires (in USD value) worldwide is around 33 million. BTC is the best money.
Also relax, you are actually an early adopter, BTC is still relatively small, mentally prepare yourself for healthy and expected market volatility/dips/corrections/"crashes" (check out this amazing 'Corrections Trends Perspective') and remember all this:
Follow this basic rules of Bitcoin:
It is always a good time to buy Bitcoin if you are hodling long term and not just for day trading, so this is a great strategy. Remember that Bitcoin has practically been up most of the time, and the road to the moon is paved with minor corrections (Bitcoin is never really "down" when you zoom-out).
Everybody parroting: "The bitcoin bubble is about to pop, not linear.
When they bring up the "2000 Dotcom Bubble collapse", tell them: I hope so! Look at these past decentralized/disruptive tech adoption "bubbles". Hyperbitcoinization is coming.
So is not farfetched to say that it will be at 100,000 by 2020, since it came from less than $1 to $5,000 in less than 10 years, and it hasn't even hit the bottom part of the exponential 'S-Curve' of adoption. Check out this great 2017 MIT study: "The Cryptocurrency Market Is Growing Exponentially". Patience pays, don't listen to most "Expert Analysts" or MSM".
Bitcoin is a Moneybadger that get's stronger and immunized with every new attack and this broad picture of its price since infancy (1 year candles on a logarithmic scale) shows Bitcoin growth is not a "bubble" but it's exponential (bigger "bubbles" every time), this old logarithmic scale has been accurate so far, as well as analysts like Wall Street strategist Tom Lee by using Metcalfe's Law: "The value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2)" wiki-link. He explains it clearer here.
Learn the difference between Inflation (dollar) and Deflation (Bitcoin) and just take a look at the fiat >20 trillion (and growing fast) debt clock to get a visual shock of unlimited fiat supply (vs limited Bitcoin/Gold supply). BTC is secured by the laws of the Universe.
Bitcoin has outperformed every other currency, commodity, stock and asset since its inception in 2009. Bitcoin, the Moneybadger, is the first unseizable store of value in human history, unlike gold, equities, or fiat, it can't be confiscated if stored correctly. How banks think blockchain will disrupt their industry. Check out these Bitcoin Economy and Bitcoin Transaction infographics.
Also, remember its fixed, limited supply of 21 million coins ever, there are just ~4.5 million (~20%) bitcoins left to be mined till 2140 and the production will keep decreasing ("halving") every 4 years till then. So, remember this and don't wait for the Bitcoin "bubble" to burst or for the price to drop significantly again, because you could be waiting forever:
“The best time to buy bitcoin was in 2009...”.
Don't be -- this guy
Edit: Stay away from fake "Bitcoin" stuff like "btc", "Bitcoin".com (Bitcoin.org is the legit site), Bcash ("Bitcoin" Cash/BCH), "Bitcoin" Gold, etc.
submitted by domelane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

10 Reasons Why The Perfect Storm is Brewing for AION

The perfect storm is brewing for Aion to become a leader in the crypto space:
 
1. AIONEX, EDCON & CONSENSUS 2018 conferences have introduced AION to more people, developers & institutional investors than ever before. Matthew Spoke's performance on Consensus Interoperability Panel with Ripple, Polkadot & Litecoin left everlasting reactions & received the only applauses at the end of the Interoperability Panel.
AION's inaugural Dev conference AIONEX at Toronto on May 02, had 650 attendees. This is a record unseen by any other crypto's inaugural dev conference to date, compared to just 40 attendees at 1st Ethereum Devcon in 2014. And if Devcon grew to 350 attendees in 2015, it's not hard to see that the next AION Dev conference attendance will be in the thousands.
 
2. Token Swap from Aion ERC-20 to native Aion coins will soon be announced. The ETH-AION cross-chain bridge is already built & was showcased live on stage at AIONEX & EDCON, so it's only a matter of time before it's released.
 
3. US, Korean & Chinese exchanges are clearly waiting for the Token Swap to take place before they list native Aion coins rather than Aion ERC-20 tokens, they don't want to painstakingly swap ERC-20 tokens themselves as seen in ICON's token swap delay that's taking exchanges about 2-months & still not accomplished.
 
4. AION team has grown to 60 in-house team members in 4 different Aion offices in North America, Europe & Asia and plan to grow to 100 people by EOY. This is extremely rare in the crypto space & can only be compared to less than half a dozen of massive platform projects like CARDANO & EOS.
 
Aion GitHub activity is continuously ranked in top 10 platforms on Darpal Rating and CryptoMiso. Github activity, along with commits quality, are important metrics that get overlooked all the time when people compare Aion to other projects based on number of telegram users. Ethereum & Neo never even had telegram... Fat Protocol Ecosystems are not built by telegram hype but rather by worldwide Dev meetups & armies of developers that can build or contribute something that can change the world.
 
5. AION PR & Marketing are shifting into high gears now that the Mainnet is live. AIONEX, EDCON & CONSENSUS 2018 have put AION on the radar of the media. Matt Spoke is slowly becoming crypto's poster boy as seen on RBC's Disruptors Panel. It's only a matter of time before the mainstream media finds out about AION.
 
6. AION is introducing Real Technological Break-throughs with the first Cross-Chain bridge that completely moves tokens seamlessly between different blockchains using the Burn/Mint mechanism, unlike all Dapp platform projects since Ethereum that are still simple blockchain 2.0 platforms with no cross-chain capability or Atomic Swap projects that only transfer value between chains, but come with major limitations.
 
Another important point that gets forgotten in the Aion vs other interoperability projects is that Aion is all these 3 things at the same time:
 
AION is increasingly recognized as the leader of Interoperability —the holy grail of blockchain tech— that will solve scalability, privacy & isolation issues to unlock the true potential of Distributed Ledger Technologies. "This is the internet, decentralized."
 
7. METCALFE’s LAW states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). This was proven repeatedly in the growth patterns of fat protocols like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Neo. Metcalfe’s Law favors interoperability projects even more, because Aion native tokens have utility far beyond the main Aion-1 blockchain:
 
8. Major AION Partners & Clients like Deloitte, TMX group (Canada's largest stock exchange), Moog Space & Defense Group, Vodafone, TD Bank, etc... are slowly moving their blockchain infrastructure to AION blockchain as they announced at AIONEX conference. This is taking place & growing the AION ecosystem while other Dapp platforms are rushing to parade their new Dapp ICOs that have little to no legitimate need for blockchain tech in the first place, but were rushed to launch ICOs to simply boast their Dapp numbers & suck more ICO funds from unsuspecting investors.
 
9. Future Partnerships will be relatively easy for AION to acquire given AION team's role as a founding board member of the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance, with the likes of Microsoft, Intel & JP Morgan (not just a regular EEA member like most other crypto projects) & the Blockchain Research Institute.
 
Aion cofounder Matthew Spoke has also strong credentials as the Fintech Advisor for the Ontario Securities Commission & Ministry of Finance and as a cofounder of the Muskoka Group along with the Tapscotts & Ethereum cofounder & ConsenSys founder Joeseph Lubin.
 
Not to mention Aion's unmatched advisory board from TMX group VP & Board of Directors and connections to Ethereum cofounders; Anthony Di lorio, Joeseph Lubin, Vitalik who's an advisor to Nuco.io & his father Dmitry Buterin who's an Angel investor in Nuco.io the company building Aion.
 
10. The TRS is coming to an end soon; however, the end of the token release schedule will slowly starts to get priced in long before the last release of Nov 2018; the date after which no more Aion will be released to public ever. Only mining/staking rewards will continue thereafter. The TRS also helps AION market cap climb up the MarketCap list with every release, adding to the increasing visibility & exposure that AION is getting.
 
People have seen what happened to fat protocols like Ethereum, Neo & Cardano, but it takes a special breed of people (and a bit of luck) to foresee why AION network interoperability will have a much bigger growth & impact potential on the entire crypto space. (This is not a financial advice. DYOR.)
submitted by Unleash-The-Kraken to ethtrader [link] [comments]

10 Reasons Why The Perfect Storm is Brewing for AION

The perfect storm is brewing for Aion to become a leader in the crypto space:
 
1. AIONEX, EDCON & CONSENSUS 2018 conferences have introduced AION to more people, developers & institutional investors than ever before. Matthew Spoke's performance on Consensus Interoperability Panel with Ripple, Polkadot & Litecoin left everlasting reactions & received the only applauses at the end of the Interoperability Panel.
AION's inaugural Dev conference AIONEX at Toronto on May 02, had 650 attendees. This is a record unseen by any other crypto's inaugural dev conference to date, compared to just 40 attendees at 1st Ethereum Devcon in 2014. And if Devcon grew to 350 attendees in 2015, it's not hard to see that the next AION Dev conference attendance will be in the thousands.
 
2. Token Swap from Aion ERC-20 to native Aion coins will soon be announced. The ETH-AION cross-chain bridge is already built & was showcased live on stage at AIONEX & EDCON, so it's only a matter of time before it's released.
 
3. US, Korean & Chinese exchanges are clearly waiting for the Token Swap to take place before they list native Aion coins rather than Aion ERC-20 tokens, they don't want to painstakingly swap ERC-20 tokens themselves as seen in ICON's token swap delay that's taking exchanges about 2-months & still not accomplished.
 
4. AION team has grown to 60 in-house team members in 4 different Aion offices in North America, Europe & Asia and plan to grow to 100 people by EOY. This is extremely rare in the crypto space & can only be compared to less than half a dozen of massive platform projects like CARDANO & EOS.
 
Aion GitHub activity is continuously ranked in top 10 platforms on Darpal Rating and CryptoMiso. Github activity, along with commits quality, are important metrics that get overlooked all the time when people compare Aion to other projects based on number of telegram users. Ethereum & Neo never even had telegram... Fat Protocol Ecosystems are not built by telegram hype but rather by worldwide Dev meetups & armies of developers that can build or contribute something that can change the world.
 
5. AION PR & Marketing are shifting into high gears now that the Mainnet is live. AIONEX, EDCON & CONSENSUS 2018 have put AION on the radar of the media. Matt Spoke is slowly becoming crypto's poster boy as seen on RBC's Disruptors Panel. It's only a matter of time before the mainstream media finds out about AION.
 
6. AION is introducing Real Technological Break-throughs with the first Cross-Chain bridge that completely moves tokens seamlessly between different blockchains using the Burn/Mint mechanism, unlike all Dapp platform projects since Ethereum that are still simple blockchain 2.0 platforms with no cross-chain capability or Atomic Swap projects that only transfer value between chains, but come with major limitations.
 
Another important point that gets forgotten in the Aion vs other interoperability projects is that Aion is all these 3 things at the same time:
 
AION is increasingly recognized as the leader of Interoperability —the holy grail of blockchain tech— that will solve scalability, privacy & isolation issues to unlock the true potential of Distributed Ledger Technologies. "This is the internet, decentralized."
 
7. METCALFE’s LAW states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). This was proven repeatedly in the growth patterns of fat protocols like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Neo. Metcalfe’s Law favors interoperability projects even more, because Aion native tokens have utility far beyond the main Aion-1 blockchain:
 
8. Major AION Partners & Clients like Deloitte, TMX group (Canada's largest stock exchange), Moog Space & Defense Group, Vodafone, TD Bank, etc... are slowly moving their blockchain infrastructure to AION blockchain as they announced at AIONEX conference. This is taking place & growing the AION ecosystem while other Dapp platforms are rushing to parade their new Dapp ICOs that have little to no legitimate need for blockchain tech in the first place, but were rushed to launch ICOs to simply boast their Dapp numbers & suck more ICO funds from unsuspecting investors.
 
9. Future Partnerships will be relatively easy for AION to acquire given AION team's role as a founding board member of the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance, with the likes of Microsoft, Intel & JP Morgan (not just a regular EEA member like most other crypto projects) & the Blockchain Research Institute.
 
Aion cofounder Matthew Spoke has also strong credentials as the Fintech Advisor for the Ontario Securities Commission & Ministry of Finance and as a cofounder of the Muskoka Group along with the Tapscotts & Ethereum cofounder & ConsenSys founder Joeseph Lubin.
 
Not to mention Aion's unmatched advisory board from TMX group VP & Board of Directors and connections to Ethereum cofounders; Anthony Di lorio, Joeseph Lubin, Vitalik who's an advisor to Nuco.io & his father Dmitry Buterin who's an Angel investor in Nuco.io the company building Aion.
 
10. The TRS is coming to an end soon; however, the end of the token release schedule will slowly starts to get priced in long before the last release of Nov 2018; the date after which no more Aion will be released to public ever. Only mining/staking rewards will continue thereafter. The TRS also helps AION market cap climb up the MarketCap list with every release, adding to the increasing visibility & exposure that AION is getting.
 
People have seen what happened to fat protocols like Ethereum, Neo & Cardano, but it takes a special breed of people (and a bit of luck) to foresee why AION will have a much bigger growth & impact potential on the entire crypto space. (This is not a financial advice. DYOR.)
submitted by Unleash-The-Kraken to AionNetwork [link] [comments]

Sorry but there is no such thing as digital gold

In history many alchemists have tried to transform a lot of stuff into gold. Some of those alchemists have made money by seling the fools gold to those naive enough to believe in this. The last generations of alchemists claim that they can turn digits more precise 1 and 0 into gold. Now we know this is not possible. Why do they try to sell us the fools gold in the digital era?? Because the despite the resources and the big brand they have inherited from Satoshi Nakamoto they are enable to inovate to further scale the the block chain technology util bitcoin became what it was ment to be digital money.
Why is scalability so important? Because the value of the network in proportional with the square of the number of participants that mean the number of possible transactions in the system. So we know that nano has the solution to the problem and can realy be digital money. Nano can assure not just issuing and traking the money like btc does but also instant free transactions which are definitive without a second settlement layer. Nano system who already has the capacity to accomodate a much more participants and is further scalable thus according to Metcalfe law hugely enhancing the value of the network.
For the good of us the nano adopters and suporters but also for the good of the crypto space we have to call out the shortcomings of bitcoin and to show and afirm what nano can do much better than btc and than other coins. So why are you scared? You think that this will unfold like btc cash? No that was a coup. There was nothing new in btc cash just a power struggle in the lost btc community.
Nano is the real evolution of crypto in somethig better who expand the scope and applications. Those who are btc maximalists basically say that if the steam egine has proved that fossil fuel can be converted to mechanical energy we shouldn't invented the petrol engine or the reactor or rocket engine. Is not how evolution works. If btc doesn't evolve and adapt it will colapse in the end.
submitted by gabivilau to nanocurrency [link] [comments]

Stellar Lumen's price is susceptible to exponential growth due to its burgeoning network effect, here's why

Its time to recognise and somewhat quantify that Stellar is incredibly undervalued. As the Stellar Development Foundation keeps saying, sending money should be as quick and easy (and cheap) as sending an email. The Stellar network therefore acts like a telecommunications network except it primarily relays payments between nodes rather than information.
Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of users connected to the system. I.e. The more nodes (end users and or validators) there are the greater the value of the network, with its value rising exponentially. Unlike telecommunications networks the limitations for connecting nodes would be things like language barriers, bandwidth strength etc These don’t apply to Stellar since all nodes connect using the stellar protocol which is one language and bandwidth is not a big factor since it only relays small byte sized packets of information to broadcast the transaction.
Metcalfe’s Law can be applied to transaction per day of a given network. While I don’t have the figures for the number of transaction per day on the 1st March 2017 I can confidently say that they are a lot less than today?
The same Law can be applied to partnerships, developers, investors and speculators and users- they have all substantially increased harmoniously as a result of the increasing network effect. Networks such as Stellar and its native currency Lumen does seem to follow Metcalf’s Law often entering price bubbles which inflate due to promise and development (fundamentals) and then spikes beyond its fundamentals due to over zealous speculation and sentiment causing the bubble to burst. The cycle is then repeated when the fundamentals catch up with new low price and sentiment then reflects what is seen as an undervalued network and the bubble starts again. This is clearly evident with bitcoin and ethereum but due to their POW and mining, they are affected by Moore's Law in my opinion and I see this as a hindrance to them long term.
Metcalfe’s Law is not predictive but it does give a rough guideline on the value of a network from its utility and network effect through out its development. However, if you combine Metcalfe’s Law with the given network fulfilling a need to solve a social/economic problem in society as Stellar is trying to do then it becomes all the more valuable and this results in future price bubbles and exponentially higher prices.
submitted by justmylifenow to Stellar [link] [comments]

The Case for an Extreme ETH Mispricing

The format of this post has been modified to be more reddit friendly. Apologies for any momentum lost.
This piece was written in collaboration with u/beerchicken8. He deserves a massive amount of credit and our thought experiment could not have been generated without him.
We wrote this piece to remind the community and new investors that we are incredibly early to this investment, and also to demonstrate that ETH is massively undervalued even if viewed as a network utility token. We meant for this to be as simple, yet impactful as possible. We are not in the practice of writing academic papers, but the narrative is clearly demonstrated.
all data is accurate to May 22, 2017
A Crude Valuation of ETH
Pundits and the media will look at the recent price graph and will likely tell you that cryptocurrencies are in a bubble. Sure the recent price action looks aggressive and may appear unsustainable, but it is hardly a bubble. In fact, it is likely that ETH is significantly undervalued.
ETH Price Graph
Crypto skeptics attempt to value bitcoin or ETH using conventional stock market metrics like P/E ratio or by comparing market capitalizations of crypto versus blue chip companies. These metrics do not fairly translate to cryptocurrencies. We can improve on that.
Metcalfe's Law Image Description
A close friend of mine stumbled across Metcalfe’s Law in an effort to properly value the market price of ETH, the cryptocurrency of ethereum. We can think of ETH as a demand-driven digital asset, since it is converted to gas to execute the smart contracts on the blockchain. It provides a vital network function: incentivizing miners to secure the blockchain. Therefore we should attempt to value ETH by attempting to value the ethereum network itself. We can use the daily transactions as our tool.
Metcalfe’s Law aims to value the network effects of communication technologies like the Internet or social networking. The premise is that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system.
To determine a fair market price of ETH, we can compare the ethereum network transactions squared (or the network value) versus the market cap of ethereum.
In the following chart, we chose to graph the log of our inputs for a better visualization of the correlation.
Log graph of Transaction2 and Marketcap
The scale is misleading, but when we look back at the ETH market cap and see that it fell below the network valuation around the time of the DAO hack. The market cap languished as the ETH price suffered from a lack of investor confidence. But as investors licked their wounds and Bitcoin maximalists cheered, the ethereum transactions have steadily increased; they even outpaced the price correction. Yet, that was just the log graph. This is the actual Metcalfe’s Law graph demonstrating that network value of ethereum vs the market cap:
Metcalfe's Law for Ethereum
We can see clearly that the market cap is significantly lagging the network effect. Theoretically, the network valuation calculated by transactions squared should equal the market cap.
So here we are. We can conclude ETH appears cheap. But this is probably far from the truth: If the current network value equals the current market cap, we are completely discounting the future growth of the network.
Stock investors will buy stocks on their future earnings and growth potential years in advance. The Tesla stock has outperformed every incumbent metric due to tantalizing growth projections. But Tesla will likely not generate profits for years. In the case of ETH, this growth discount is significant. Not only does it not appear to exist in the price, but we can make 3 safe assumptions to forecast the opportunity for incredible growth:
Also, there are additional factors accelerating the scarcity of ETH:
Further Reading: u/mr_yukon_c touched on some other metrics signalling the strength of Ethereum Network in an excellent post the other day:
https://np.reddit.com/ethtradecomments/6cr75s/current_state_of_the_ethereum_network_extremely/
submitted by pittinout7 to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Kin: The Reader's Digest Condensed Version

We all know that Kin is a unique digital currency, that it has value and utility, and that the Kin Ecosystem, currently in development, is going to be big--very big. But let’s look back for a moment. In order to see the scope of what’s happening, and where we’re going, it might be useful to look back, at where we’ve been.
Kin was started by the good folks at KIK Messenger. As Facebook and Google grew to gargantuan proportions, it became obvious to all that the old-school model of Advertisement Placement for monetization was becoming untenable for anyone other than the biggest and most entrenched of companies. Yes, the Facebooks and Googles of the world were doing fine with monetization via advertisements, and were busily scalping data from their users in a feeding frenzy to capitalize on the one asset they could sell… those users’ attention.
While most users thought Facebook was designed to give the social media platform as the product, and that they themselves were the customers, the reality is far different. The truth is that the advertisers were the actual customers, and Facebook users were the actual product. Very much like the Matrix, isn’t it? We are fed a social media mental “pudding,” and in return we give Facebook hours and hours of our attention… which it then sells to the advertisers.
Understandably, this realization came as a shock to those who were able to see and understand this revelation. Many users still do not grasp the reality of the situation, and are happily, mindlessly eating the pudding.
Leaving aside the distasteful mental image this business model give us, it created a problem for up-and-coming, and smaller but established Social Media companies. The smaller SM operations were left in a bit of a financial quandary… advertisers were loathe to spend on smaller platforms, because the reach of the giant platforms was so large and all inclusive. The remainder were basically crumbs on the floor.
From this basic problem… and the ensuing economic reality… came the idea for Kin.
Monetization is a concept that no one really enjoys talking about. For most of us, we’ve come to accept that ads are a necessary evil that we pay attention to in order to receive content; at this point most of us simply grit our teeth and press on. No, I’m never ever going to buy that silly spray to cover up the smell of your poo, but go ahead, play the damned video ad… again. I digress.
But what if there was a way to change the dynamic so that the SM platform user’s attention was no longer the product that got sold to monetize the operation? What if the user could sell his or her OWN attention, and be rewarded thusly? And what if there was a way to compensate developers and businesses who work in the ecosystem for this activity as well?
What if the user actually became a rewarded participant in the engine that generated income? And was even able to generate income for themselves in the process? What if a system was designed to reward users, developers and investors, all at the same time?
This is the basic premise of Kin.
THE GENESIS of KIN
In 2009, Kik Interactive was formed by a group of college students at the University of Waterloo, Canada, in order to create applications for mobile devices and smartphones. Soon thereafter, the Kik Messenger was launched. In it’s first fifteen days, Kik enrolled over one million users. Over the years, Kik has solidified itself as a strong niche player in the messaging app world. Initially, Kik monetized itself by placing advertisements, but realized over time that ad revenue might not be the best way to keep Kik in solvent.
After several years of struggle, Kik embarked on an experiment and instituted a program called “Kik Points.” This program allowed Kik users to participate in a very basic and limited “earn and spend” program. The users would answer surveys, or watch videos, in order to “earn” Kik Points… which they could then spend on in-app programs like sticker packs or emojis. What the Kik folks saw was a very enthusiastic, large group of people working to earn, and then spend Kik Points, in a transactional rate and density that dwarfs that of every cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin.
Kik then knew it was onto something. The team got to work, and after years of design, Kin was born. The Kin token was introduced into the crypto universe through an ICO (initial coin offering).
The Basics of Kin
Kin is the first cryptocurrency designed for mass-adoption and utility. It was engineered, specifically, to act as a currency to be used in millions of daily small and micro-transactions. In other words, it was a coin designed to be “spent” by the masses, not held by speculators.
Kin is designed to reward people for using the coin. The Kin Rewards Engine (KRE) pays Kin to users and developers who contribute to the ecosystem. This does “inflate” the circulating supply of the coin, which in turn keeps the value of the individual coins in check, but in reality this is a core design component of Kin. Kin is designed to grow in value, but is designed to grow more slowly because of the extreme volatility witnessed in the growth of other coins. This kind of volatility would destroy Kin’s ability to be used as a true currency. The KRE serves two purposes, then; to reward those who boost the ecosystem thought their efforts, and to moderate the extreme peaks and valleys that have plagued cryptocurrency since the invention of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, for example, has morphed into a “store of wealth” rather than an actual usable currency. It is “deflationary” in nature; in other words, the scarcity of it is the sole driver of it’s value. The high cost of Bitcoin transactions, extreme value fluctuations and slow processing speed all hinder its use as a true currency. Additionally, why would someone spend Bitcoin when it may appreciate significantly in a short period of time? We all have heard the story about the two pizzas that were bought with 40,000 BTC… which would make those two pizzas worth over $300 million dollars today. And why would a merchant accept a currency that might lose a large percentage of it’s value very quickly? With a deflationary, speculative currency like Bitcoin, swings of plus or minus 30 to 50% within a few days are not uncommon.
Kin, on the other hand, is designed to be used and spent by millions of users. It’s value will also grow significantly, but that growth will be relatively stable, with few of the huge peaks and valleys we’ve all seen in other cryptocurrencies. This is directly due to the large initial supply of Kin tokens (756 billion) the large maximum supply (10 trillion) and the design of the KRE. Most people with any crypto experience see that 10 trillion figure (the maximum circulating supply of Kin) to be a huge detriment at first blush. This is because they haven’t grasped the need for that many tokens. Looking at it from the perspective of other crypto, 10T coins is a ludicrous, astronomical number of coins. And with any other coin, it would bake no sense.
But Kin is unique. It’s a true currency, not a store of wealth. It is designed to create value growth through usage, not through speculative buying, selling and holding. When Kin reaches mass adoption, the larger supply of coins will keep the price of the coin relatively stable while it grows in value, and will significantly reduce volatility.
Notice that I did not say that the large supply will reduce appreciation; it won’t. That’s because while Kin is designed to be an inexpensive coin, and should never experience the volatility of Bitcoin, that doesn’t mean it won’t gain and accumulate value. It most definitely will. There are no limits to that appreciation, and those who buy Kin now, while the price is well below 1/100ths of a cent, will see significant return on their investment. That opportunity, as significant as it is, is not going to last much longer, and will not be available again.
Kin is designed to go against the “normal” crypto path of pump and dump. It is not designed for arbitrage trading. Again, it is designed for utility, to be earned and spent, unlike most cryptocurrencies.
Kin is designed to be an inflationary coin, not a deflationary coin. In that, I mean that Kin, through the KRE, injects liquidity into the ecosystem and does not appreciate solely due to its scarcity. The KRE rewards those who have significant positive effect on the ecosystem by awarding Kin to those entities or people. If you develop an app that captures people’s imaginations and is wildly successful (think PokemonGo), and you’re using Kin to monetize that app, that effect on the Kin Ecosystem will be greatly rewarded with equivalent Kin. By injecting this liquidity into the ecosystem, the KRE rewards those who make the ecosystem work. This also tends to have an inflationary effect that slows the growth of the coin into a manageable upward trajectory, versus a hyperbolic, exponential increase.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is deflationary… which means that no new BTC will be brought into the BTC system, and its value is based solely on that perceived scarcity. Since it has no mass adoption or real utility, and it’s value can rise and fall very quickly in large amounts. People buy Bitcoin for two reasons only today; speculation, and movement of fiat currencies into other cryptocurrencies. Speculation is the reason most people get into cryptocurrencies; with the advent of Kin, that will no longer be the case. Once Kin begins mass adoption, the majority of people in cryptocurrencies will be in Kin, and will be using, earning and spending Kin without buying the coin on an exchange. They will not be speculators, they will be users.
Speculation has been the name of the crypto game in the past, of course, but that is about to change. Speculation on crypto will become the minority use case, not the majority. Bitcoin will always have a place, obviously, but can you buy groceries with it? Can you pay your electric bill? Can you go out to eat using Bitcoin? No. Bitcoin will always be the first cryptocurrency, but it is not a mass-adoptable currency with any single, strong use case in its current form. Kin was designed with Bitcoin’s failings in mind.
The question comes up: Will Kin ever be a truly valuable coin, even with a ten trillion coin supply? The answer is an emphatic YES, it will. It will never be a short-term investment; there will be no 10x tomorrow, or 100x next week. But for the patient, the growth is coming. For the long term HODLer, the rewards will be significant indeed.
Let me explain why the Kin Foundation, in designing Kin, chose to make the circulating supply 10 trillion Kin tokens.
Why are there 10 Trillion Kin?
To be a true currency with mass adoption, used by millions of people, there needs to be a large amount of Kin available. Otherwise, in very short order, people would be using Kin in decimals. It was decided that people would rather earn and spend multiples of Kin (i.e., 1000 Kin or 500 Kin) versus decimals of Kin (i.e., 0.0001 Kin or 0.0005 Kin), as is now necessary with Bitcoin, Ethereum and many others. Note that Kin can also be used in decimal divisions, so that in the future, the value of Kin will never be limited by an inability to be used by the decimal.
In order to tamp down the extremely volatile nature of many cryptocurrencies, a larger circulating and available supply is necessary. A balance was found at 10T where the supply is large enough to meet the needs of the millions of users, but was small enough to not interfere with the growth of value in the coin. The Kin Rewards Engine (KRE) is key to this balance. By injecting Kin liquidity into the ecosystem, it rewards those who enable and grow the system, but it also minimizes volatility and keeps value growth down to a sustainable, non-hyperbolic/non-exponential growth curve. In this, it both creates opportunity and eases fears of volatility, for users, developers and merchants alike.
There are currently 756 billion Kin tokens in circulation; most of the remainder are held by the Kin Foundation for their own use, and for rewarding those who enable the ecosystem via the KRE. The KRE is schedule to begin operation in Q3 2018. As the value of Kin appreciates, the number of Kin injected via the KRE will change, though the total value will not. For this reason, the KRE stands to be in operation, injecting liquidity, rewarding innovation and ecosystem enhancement and controlling volatility for many, many years to come.
In the end, 10 trillion coins will not be enough to satisfy the long term needs and desires of the masses. If 50 million people are using Kin, this works out to only 200,000 Kin available per user. Most early adoptecapitalists in the ecosystem hold many, many more than that. This eventual scarcity will drive the value of Kin up significantly; I won’t prognosticate how high. There is, however, no limiting factor. I am very bullish at this prospect… because of the last item, number 5.
Metcalfe's Law shows the correlation between the usage of a telecommunications system, the size of it’s network, and its value. As the number of users grow, this law shows us that there is a direct correlation between the supply, the number of transactions per day, and the approximate value of that coin. This law follows closely the movement of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrency systems, and shows that Kin will benefit from mass adoption and millions of daily transactions from tens or hundreds of millions of users. Without a large supply, this would not be possible.
The design of Kin requires 10 Trillion coins to be available to execute the plan. And the plan is to allow users, developers and investors to all reap the benefits of a vibrant and growing ecosystem. When there are hundreds of millions of users in the ecosystem, the value of Kin will be greater than most people can imagine. It’s an exciting time, to be sure!
So we’ve looked at why the circulating supply is important, and why it’s different from other currencies. Let’s look at the center of why this works, the KRE.
The Kin Rewards Engine: How it will disrupt Social Media monetization
How often do you log onto YouTube, or Facebook, or any other Social Media site, and click on a video you’d like to see? Before the video starts, though, you are forced to watch an advertisement… maybe it’s something you want to know more about, but more often than not, it isn’t.
What if someone was reading your chat messages and saw you were talking about buying new running shoes, and there’s the ad for that, placed right in your face. Currently, the harvesting of your personal and private conversations is real and ongoing… putting that aside (and that’s a wholly different problem that Kin solves), someone is making money by scraping your personal data off of private communications and browsing histories, creating ads that target your interests, and then forcing you to watch those advertisements. A bot is reading your data, intuiting your thoughts, and someone profiting off of you.
George Orwell’s “1984” called this person “Big Brother.”
The KRE puts an end to this exploitative monetization model. The advertiser compensates you directly for viewing that advertisement, or answering that ad, or for playing that game. You can then spend your Kin on spend opportunities like branded Gift Cards from hundreds of big named merchants like Amazon, McDonalds, and Best Buy, or the user can take their Kin to an exchange and sell it for the fiat currency of their choice, US Dollars, Euros, GBP or Yen. You can use your Kin to buy music, to view curated content, or to tip a content provider. Paywalls for online journalism will become a thing of the past.
The KRE will reward the developer or person or company who placed the ad and contributed to the ecosystem. The user is allowed to contribute financially to content they value; instead of having their personal information sold to an advertiser. The user also can benefit financially for their own intellectual efforts and content creation.
Businesses and developers will be able to easily move their Kin to exchanges to trade for fiat currency; this enables them to pay bills and salaries, and reinvest in other parts of their business. This also creates liquidity for exchange trading, which is an important part of the Kin Ecosystem.
In this way, the KRE will rewards users, developers and investors who participate by adding value to the ecosystem. It will be an “open” ecosystem, allowing people to choose their use of Kin, whether it be purchases within apps, soft monetization via giftcards, or hard monetization via exchange trading for fiat currency. It may also become an option for game fans, hobby coders and enthusiasts to produce a living income via Kin.
Why are there two types of Kin?
Initially, Kin was designed to exist on a single blockchain infrastructure, the Ethereum Blockchain. Kin’s ICO was performed on the ETH Blockchain, and all Kin currently available to buy on exchanges are ERC20 tokens, built around Ethereum.
Last year, Ethereum experienced significant delays in transaction times because of a game that had been built on the platform, called “CryptoKitties.” This game became very popular very quickly with Crypto fans, and in their exuberance, their usage crashed the Ethereum platform.
The Kin Foundation realized that Ethereum, in its current form, was neither fast enough, nor robust enough to support the millions of users of Kin. Something had to be done.
The Foundation decided to seek another blockchain for Kin. Something faster, stronger, and secure enough for the millions of users of Kin to have near instantaneous, secure transactions, no matter what. A couple of solutions were found: The Stellar Lumens blockchain (XLM) was chosen because of it’s transaction speed, utility and robust nature, and the Orbs blockchain, which can stand as a replacement if there is a problem with Stellar down the road.
But what about exchanges? Kin on Ethereum can expect to be on many exchanges, and that access to liquidity that is essential to the success of the project. Kin on Lumens or on Orbs wouldn’t have widespread access to exchanges. This was a dilemma, The solution was to create the first ever two-blockchain cryptocurrency.
All Kin bought and sold on exchanges is on the Ethereum blockchain. Kin to be used in the KRE, the Kik app and the Kinit app, and in the remainder of the Kin Ecosystem, will be based on the Stellar Lumens blockchain. The two types of Kin will be functionally identical in value, and freely interchangeable between the two blockchains.
Basically, users will earn and spend Kin (XLM) in the Kin Ecosytem, due to Stellar’s robust design and fast transaction speed, but when they wish to move their Kin to an exchange, their Kin (XLM) will be exchanged for Kin (ETH) on a 1 for 1 basis prior to moving the Kin to the exchange of their choice for trading purposes.
In this way, the needs of all Kin users will be met. And should Stellar be someday unable to meet the demands of mass adoption, the Orbs Blockchain, and others, are available for later development. In any event, this dichotomy of Kin will be mostly transparent to the user, and will not impact the value or the utility of the currency.
The Kin Foundation has developed this dual-blockchain technology so that Kin can become the first mass-adopted, widely used cryptocurrency in the world.
So, how much will Kin be worth?
This is a big question. Many naysayers don’t believe Kin will appreciate significantly because of the large supply. This is based on their past experiences with Cryptos that don’t have utility and are simply speculative in nature. That’s not the case with Kin.
To be completely honest, no one knows how much appreciation Kin will experience, or when it will reach a certain value. Here’s what we do know:
Kin is positioned to be the first mass-adoption cryptocurrency in the world. Today, less than six million people worldwide own or use and cryptocurrency… this is an astonishingly low number. Kik, the messaging app behind Kin, has over 300 million registered users. Kin will be introduced first on the Kik app; Kik app users will have their first opportunities to earn and spend Kin before the end of 2018.
So basically, once Kin is introduced on the Kik app later this year, the number of people using cryptocurrency worldwide will multiply many times. In one day. Kik will introduce crypto to tens of millions of users by the end of the year.
As mentioned before, Metcalfe’s Law shows the relationship between a cryptocurrency value and the usage or transactions conducted by that coin, and the circulating supply. With current supply at 756 billion, and assuming transaction numbers in the 10 million per day range, Kin should be trading at around $0.01 per coin. Remember, however, that the KRE will be raising the circulating supply, and it may take some time to get to 10 million transactions per day. The value of Kin hinges on these numbers. In this, the beginning of the ecosystem, there is no foolproof way to estimate the value of Kin on any certain day.
That said, there is no limit to the value of the coin, over time. None. Not circulating supply, or market capitalization, or anything else. No limit. In a decade, after the ecosystem has matured and is operating solidly, Kin could be worth…. Well, you fill in your own numbers. I have my opinions, and they are not limited by the number of coins, the market cap or anything else designed into the coin. For me, it all hinges on mass adoption and usage.
Partnerships
Kin has inked a number of partnerships that are exciting and will stand the ecosystem well into the future. Two recently announced partnerships are UNITY and BLACKHAWK NETWORK.
UNITY
Unity is the ultimate game development platform. It brings together developers and technical assets in ways that allow the creation of some of the world’s most popular digital games. There were 5 billion downloads of games made with Unity in Q3 2016 alone. Today, games that were made with Unity exist on 2.5 billion unique mobile devices.
App and game developers will be able to insert Kin’s “5 minute SDK” (Software development kit) into the code of their app or game, and be monetizing their efforts with Kin in minutes. This “plug and play” approach makes the Kin Ecosystem and its rewards accessible to almost every developer, without the expense, time and research of developing a cryptocurrency. It truly is bringing cryptocurrency to the masses.
Simply plug the “5 minute SDK” into your code, launch/update it, and within minutes, you’re creating revenue. Your users will also have earn/spend opportunities, and your game/app usage will grow dramatically. No more sharing your revenue with the Apple App Store, or with Google Play Store. This is a huge increase in revenue for developers.
BLACKHAWK
Blackhawk Networks is the leading gift card supplier. Simply put, if you’ve ever used a gift card, it most probably came from Blackhawk Networks; that’s how deep their market goes. Over 250 different branded gift cards will be available for developers to choose from for their users to select, based on their personal knowledge of the demographic. Is your app a traffic or mapping app? Perhaps your users would appreciate being able to earn Kin to buy a Dunkin Donuts cash card. Because, coffee. Is your app a fitness app? Perhaps a Nike gift card is more appropriate. Is it a game geared towards younger users? There’s always McDonalds. A dating app? How about a card for flower delivery?
You can see that the options are endless. And don’t forget, the user AND the developer can choose to move their kin to other apps for other options, or to large cryptocurrency exchanges, where they can exchange their Kin for dollars, euros, etc.
In this way, the ecosystem is enhanced, the cycle begins again, and the KRE continues to reward.
Big Investors
One of the things that first got me excited about Kin was learning that Kik and Kin were heavily invested in by Tencent, the Chinese behemoth company behind WeChat. I travel extensively to China for my day job, and it was an incredible realization to see that most Chinese don’t carry paper currency anymore. Hundreds of millions of Chinese use WeChat every day to purchase everyday things like food, movies, clothing and the like. WeChat connects to the user’s bank account, and instantaneously debits the accounts when the user makes a purchase. Many retail outlets and vending machines in China no longer accept credit cards, and fiat purchases are dwindling in number.
Tencent’s interest in Kin is significant. Imagine Kik, using Kin, evolving into something similar… with hundreds of millions of people using Kin to conduct a significant amount of the economic transactions in their daily life! The adoption and utility numbers are mind boggling.
Additionally, there are a number of heavy hitters in the Crypto space investment community. Union Square Ventures (USV) is an investment fund that has bet heavily on Kik, and thereby, on Kin. Other investments from USV include CoinBase, Koko, DuckDuckGo, CodeAcademy, DuoLingo, Wattpad, SoundCloud, Foresquare, Kickstarter, Meetup, Etsy, Disqus, Tumblr, Twitter and Zynga. As you can see, Kin is extremely well positioned, and the monetization opportunity Kin represents for these companies is being explored.
Wrapping it all up in a big red bow…
The TL;DR version is this: Kin is poised to become the most used cryptocurrency in existence in 2018. As the KRE comes online, Kin is introduced to the Kik Community, the discrete Kin app (Kinit App) is released, the 5-minute SDK is finalized, more partnerships come online, more and major exchanges offer Kin trading, and word spreads, expect the value of Kin to begin growing significantly.
Kin currently sits near the bottom of the top 100 cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization, but the expectation is that Kin will rise towards the top of the top 100 in short order. As the value increases, so does market cap. Don’t make the mistake of thinking market capitalization limits the growth of Kin in any way; it will be the usage and mass adoption that will grow the value.
As the crypto market recovers from the last few months, look for Kin to accelerate its growth as more partnerships and exchanges are announced. Once the KRE begins operations, the value of Kin will grow more quickly. I do not expect Kin ever be worth less than it is right now.
The future for Kin is extremely bright. The Kin Foundation has much work left to do, but they are up to the task. Stay informed, and make sure your portfolio has Kin in it!
submitted by hiker2mtn to KinFoundation [link] [comments]

Kin’s ticking boxes- a couple more to go.

We all know about the ‘network effect’, Metcalfe’s law etc etc. Kin’s arguably already leading the way on this front. ✔️
Kin.org/stats Blocktivity.info etc
Then we have the FCAS scoring system you can see on CoinMarketCap- again Kin’s one of the very highest scorers in the whole of the cryptoverse ✔️
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/kin/#ratings
Another metric of ‘success’ is the amount of chatter on Reddit. After generic crypto, bitcoin and eth subs, guess who’s top? Yep. Kin. ✔️
https://cryptosub.live/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/research-reddit-crypto-related-discussion-volume-strongly-correlated-to-price
And yet today Kin sits at 236 on the crypto charts. Laughable really.
We all know that the three (main) things that have held or are holding us back are: lack of liquidity/exchanges, the seemingly endless ‘pivoting’ on blockchain plans and let’s not forget the SEC.
The blockchain should now be sorted (no more pivots), the liquidity/exchanges should be easier to organise now we have migrated so that just leaves the SEC...
Should the threat of the SEC really drag us down from hitting top 10 in most metrics to being valued as a coin in the 230s? Personally, I don’t think so. Bearing in mind there’s a shit-load of other projects (higher up the charts) that the SEC will also fall foul of the SEC.
Like the rest of you, I’m curious to see how things look when the migration is complete and we’re finally on some liquid exchanges🤞
submitted by DanielCKin to KinFoundation [link] [comments]

CENSORED (twice!) on r\bitcoin in 2016: "The existing Visa credit card network processes about 15 million Internet purchases per day worldwide. Bitcoin can already scale much larger than that with existing hardware for a fraction of the cost. It never really hits a scale ceiling." - Satoshi Nakomoto

Here's the OP on btc from March 2016 - which just contained some quotes from some guy named Satoshi Nakamoto, about scaling Bitcoin on-chain:
"The existing Visa credit card network processes about 15 million Internet purchases per day worldwide. Bitcoin can already scale much larger than that with existing hardware for a fraction of the cost. It never really hits a scale ceiling." - Satoshi Nakomoto
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/49fzak/the_existing_visa_credit_card_network_processes/
https://archive.fo/I8Tp6
And below is the exact same OP - which was also posted twice on r\bitcoin in March 2016 - and which got deleted twice by the Satoshi-hating censors of r\bitcoin.
(ie: You could still link to the post if you already knew its link - but you'd never be able to accidentally find the post, because it the censors of r\bitcoin had immediately deleted it from the front page - and you'd never be able to read the post even with the link, because the censors of r\bitcoin had immediately deleted the body of the post - twice)
"The existing Visa credit card network processes about 15 million Internet purchases per day worldwide. Bitcoin can already scale much larger than that with existing hardware for a fraction of the cost. It never really hits a scale ceiling." - Satoshi Nakomoto
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/49iuf6/the_existing_visa_credit_card_network_processes/
https://archive.fo/TB9lj
"The existing Visa credit card network processes about 15 million Internet purchases per day worldwide. Bitcoin can already scale much larger than that with existing hardware for a fraction of the cost. It never really hits a scale ceiling." - Satoshi Nakamoto
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/49ixhj/the_existing_visa_credit_card_network_processes/
https://archive.fo/AeMZ7
So there you have it, folks.
This is why people who read r\bitcoin are low-information losers.
This is why people on r\bitcoin don't understand how to scale Bitcoin - ie, they support bullshit "non-solutions" like SegWit, Lightning, UASF, etc.
If you're only reading r\bitcoin, then you're being kept in the dark by the censors of r\bitcoin.
The censors of r\bitcoin have been spreading lies and covering up all the important information about scaling (including quotes from Satoshi!) for years.
Meanwhile, the real scaling debate is happening over here on btc (and also in some other, newer places now).
On r\btc, you can read positive, intelligent, informed debate about scaling Bitcoin, eg:
New Cornell Study Recommends a 4MB Blocksize for Bitcoin
(posted March 2016 - ie, we could probably support 8MB blocksize by now)
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/4cq8v0/new_cornell_study_recommends_a_4mb_blocksize_fo
http://fc16.ifca.ai/bitcoin/papers/CDE+16.pdf
Gavin Andresen: "Let's eliminate the limit. Nothing bad will happen if we do, and if I'm wrong the bad things would be mild annoyances, not existential risks, much less risky than operating a network near 100% capacity." (June 2016)
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/4of5ti/gavin_andresen_lets_eliminate_the_limit_nothing/
21 months ago, Gavin Andresen published "A Scalability Roadmap", including sections called: "Increasing transaction volume", "Bigger Block Road Map", and "The Future Looks Bright". This was the Bitcoin we signed up for. It's time for us to take Bitcoin back from the strangle-hold of Blockstream.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/43lxgn/21_months_ago_gavin_andresen_published_a/
Bitcoin Original: Reinstate Satoshi's original 32MB max blocksize. If actual blocks grow 54% per year (and price grows 1.542 = 2.37x per year - Metcalfe's Law), then in 8 years we'd have 32MB blocks, 100 txns/sec, 1 BTC = 1 million USD - 100% on-chain P2P cash, without SegWit/Lightning or Unlimited
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/5uljaf/bitcoin_original_reinstate_satoshis_original_32mb/
Purely coincidental...
(graph showing Bitcoin transactions per second hitting the artificial 1MB limit in late 2016 - and at the same time, Bitcoin share of market cap crashed, and altcoin share of market cap skyrocketed)
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/6a72vm/purely_coincidental/
The debate is not "SHOULD THE BLOCKSIZE BE 1MB VERSUS 1.7MB?". The debate is: "WHO SHOULD DECIDE THE BLOCKSIZE?" (1) Should an obsolete temporary anti-spam hack freeze blocks at 1MB? (2) Should a centralized dev team soft-fork the blocksize to 1.7MB? (3) OR SHOULD THE MARKET DECIDE THE BLOCKSIZE?
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/5pcpec/the_debate_is_not_should_the_blocksize_be_1mb/
Skype is down today. The original Skype was P2P, so it couldn't go down. But in 2011, Microsoft bought Skype and killed its P2P architecture - and also killed its end-to-end encryption. AXA-controlled Blockstream/Core could use SegWit & centralized Lightning Hubs to do something similar with Bitcoin
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/6ib893/skype_is_down_today_the_original_skype_was_p2p_so/
Bitcoin Unlimited is the real Bitcoin, in line with Satoshi's vision. Meanwhile, BlockstreamCoin+RBF+SegWitAsASoftFork+LightningCentralizedHub-OfflineIOUCoin is some kind of weird unrecognizable double-spendable non-consensus-driven fiat-financed offline centralized settlement-only non-P2P "altcoin"
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/57brcb/bitcoin_unlimited_is_the_real_bitcoin_in_line/
Core/Blockstream attacks any dev who knows how to do simple & safe "Satoshi-style" on-chain scaling for Bitcoin, like Mike Hearn and Gavin Andresen. Now we're left with idiots like Greg Maxwell, Adam Back and Luke-Jr - who don't really understand scaling, mining, Bitcoin, or capacity planning.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/6du70v/coreblockstream_attacks_any_dev_who_knows_how_to/
Adjustable blocksize cap (ABC) is dangerous? The blocksize cap has always been user-adjustable. Core just has a really shitty inferface for it.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/617gf9/adjustable_blocksize_cap_abc_is_dangerous_the/
Clearing up Some Widespread Confusions about BU
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/602vsy/clearing_up_some_widespread_confusions_about_bu/
Adjustable-blocksize-cap (ABC) clients give miners exactly zero additional power. BU, Classic, and other ABC clients are really just an argument in code form, shattering the illusion that devs are part of the governance structure.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/614su9/adjustableblocksizecap_abc_clients_give_miners/
Commentary
So, we already have the technology for bigger blocks - and all the benefits that would come with that (higher price, lower fees, faster network, more adoption, etc.)
The reason why Bitcoin doesn't actually already have bigger blocks is because:
  • The censors of r\bitcoin (and their central banking / central planning buddies at AXA-owned Blockstream) have been covering up basic facts about simple & safe on-chain scaling (including quotes by Satoshi!) for years now.
  • The toxic dev who wrote Core's "scaling roadmap" - Blockstream's "Chief Technology Officer" (CTO) Greg Maxwell u/nullc - has constantly been spreading disinformation about Bitcoin.
For example, here is AXA-owned Blockstream CTO Greg Maxwell spreading disinformation about mining:
Here's the sickest, dirtiest lie ever from Blockstream CTO Greg Maxwell u/nullc: "There were nodes before miners." This is part of Core/Blockstream's latest propaganda/lie/attack on miners - claiming that "Non-mining nodes are the real Bitcoin, miners don't count" (their desperate argument for UASF)
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/6cega2/heres_the_sickest_dirtiest_lie_ever_from/
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/6c9djtldr_for_uasf_if_miners_refuse_to_obey_us_let/dht09d6/?context=1
https://archive.fo/0DqJE
And here is AXA-owned Blockstream CTO Greg Maxwell flip-flopping about the blocksize:
Greg Maxwell used to have intelligent, nuanced opinions about "max blocksize", until he started getting paid by AXA, whose CEO is head of the Bilderberg Group - the legacy financial elite which Bitcoin aims to disintermediate. Greg always refuses to address this massive conflict of interest. Why?
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/4mlo0z/greg_maxwell_used_to_have_intelligent_nuanced/
TL;DR:
submitted by ydtm to btc [link] [comments]

Ripple & XRP Price & News! SBI, Toast Wallet, Uphold & Mr. B's First Interview! Ripple/XRP News: Metcalfe’s Law & XRP Holder Estimate Bitcoin Rising With The Tide?! July 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis How to value a bitcoin Ripple/XRP News: Metcalfe’s Law & XRP Holder Estimate

Metcalfe’s Law Only Good For The Long Term. A new study called Metcalfe’s law and herding behavior in the cryptocurrency market, authored by Danial Traian Pele and Miruna Mazurency-Marinescu-Pele has confirmed that Metcalfe’s law may only apply to Bitcoin’s network in the long term.. The law stipulates that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected Metcalfe value for Bitcoin does provide for a more difficult understanding, and is a complex quant calculation that has a number of implications, which Peterson said of: “Bitcoin’s price provides a transparent look at Metcalfe’s law at work.” Generalised Metcalfe’s law for Bitcoin’s price, Feb 2019. As can be seen above, unique bitcoin addressees have been growing with some oscillation but generally in an upwards direction. The featured image shows more clearly a period of continuous growth in the number of unique addresses in use at any given time, while price was generally Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent. Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin, using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have been performed over recent years Bitcoin is currently trading around $5400, after a horror few weeks in which it lost up to 60% of its value. So is it fairly priced or should bargain hunters snap it up at discount prices? FAIR VALUE: Metcalfe’s Law is a method of valuing the network effect of technologies and businesses, and has been used to value businesses like Tencent and Facebook.

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Ripple & XRP Price & News! SBI, Toast Wallet, Uphold & Mr. B's First Interview!

Open a Coinbase account NOW to buy XRP & Bitcoin @ https://coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/n3mE6 ... Ripple/XRP News: Metcalfe’s Law & XRP Holder Estimate - Duration: 23:19. Bitcoin Analysis, Top bitcoin analysis, price prediction, Bitcoin Trading, Bitcoin 2018, Bitcoin Crash, Bitcoin Moon, Bitcoin News, Bitcoin Today, Best Bitcoin Analysis, Bitcoin price, Bitcoin to ... GOLD & SILVER PRICES IN RESET IN SIX MONTHS: The Coming Global Currency Reset With John Rubino - Duration: 27:20. Economic Predictions 2020 1,070 views 2 DAYS LEFT FOR $200 BITCOIN GIVEAWAY! https://gleam.io/competitions/4FwaM-crypto-influencers-200-bitcoin-giveaway I don't accept donations, use that money t... Metcalfe’s law says the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users on the network. Based on this model, Lee expects the value of bitcoin to be $6,000 by the middle ...

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